Predicted 2000-2010 South American deforestation hotspots
and diffuse deforestation areas

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Overview of the most significant predicted spatial deforestation features GUYANA: Apart from some forest clearing for pasture along the Essequibo river halfway downstream, pasture expansion is predicted to be concentrated in an active deforestation frontier in the southern Upper Takutu province, moving into the forest from the natural savannah towards the east. COLOMBIA: Although characterised by a rather disperse pattern, cropland expansion is expected to be concentrated in the Andean valleys and on the lower mountain slopes, mainly in the north-western part of the country. In this same region, pasture replaces a considerable amount of forest remnants along the Magdalena river at the northern end of this wide Andes valley, as well as in the Caribbean plain. The largest deforestation hotspots though are Amazon forest deforestation frontiers. They are found along most of the Amazon forest border, but those in the southern piedmont region are largest in size. Here forest is almost exclusively replaced by pasture. VENEZUELA: In contrast to cropland expansion, limited to the central northern coast and the plains neighbouring the Andes in the West, a considerable tropical forest area in the southern Guyana shield region is expected to be converted into pasture by 2010. A few deforestation frontiers are found at the transition to the Llanos, but considerable conversion is also expected to take place inside this forested region. Disperse but significant forest remnant conversion though does also take place in the western more humid Llanos (Apure, Barinas and south of Guarico provinces). ECUADOR: Some disperse expansion of pasture into forest occurs in the Andes region, especially at the south-western Peruvian border. By far the most significant feature is a large hotspot of pasture expansion into tropical forest in the north-eastern lowlands near the Colombian border (Sucumbíos and Napo provinces, mostly towards the east, but also at the Andean footslopes and along the Napo river). BRAZIL: Although some deciduous and evergreen forest would be converted to cropland in Rio Grand do Sul, the important amount of cropland expansion into forest is dominantly concentrated in the Amazon states of Pará (along road BR-163, Santarém-Cuiabá) and Mato Grosso. Contrary to available information (except for the FRA monitoring sites; FAO, 2001b), some secondary forests in western Brazil would be threatened by pasture expansion. This is a highly diffuse process though, spread out over an enormous area. Some spatial concentration is foreseen in the semi-deciduous forest in eastern Bahia. By far most conversion to pasture is expected to take place at both the western and eastern end of the arc of deforestation. This concerns mainly the semi-humid forest in Maranhão and Rondônia where the process remains highly active (especially in the North and along the road to Rio Branco). PERU: The predicted Peruvian Amazon deforestation hotspots would be mainly imputable to cropland expansion. Forest conversion to pasture dominates in the Andes. The amount is considerable, but because of the diffuse spatial pattern no hotspots can be designated. Most conversion is expected to take place on the western side of the chain, at altitudes ranging from about 2000 to 3500 meters. In the South considerable conversion is predicted in the Amazon side oriented valleys towards Cuzco. BOLIVIA: The still very “hot” spot of deforestation around Santa Cruz remains dominated by cropland expansion, while such conversion is also important in the Andes footslope areas of the La Paz and Cochabamba provinces. As in Peru, pasture expansion into forest occurs mainly in a disperse manner on the Andean slopes, east of the Bolivian highlands, at altitudes of 2000 meter or higher. In the lowlands a few spatial concentrations of conversion to pasture are foreseen, mainly in eastern Chiquitanía. PARAGUAY: While conversion of forest to cropland is expected to be concentrated in the four most eastern provinces, conversion to pasture is predicted to occur in a rather disperse manner in the South of Oriente (east of Rio Paraguay), although a concentration is expected between the cities of Asunción and Coronel Oviedo. Two more important hotspots of forest conversion to pasture are predicted in the Chaco, one in the colonization area around Filadelfia and the other to the east in Pozo Colorado.