Predicting the location of land use changes

Finally the demand will be allocated in an iterative procedure taking into account the probability of land use change, the land use specific conversion elasticities and the area specific conversion restrictions (to avoid change in the classes supposed to remain stable). These options also allows to test scenarios such as no change in protected areas, or a maximum duration of land use for intensive agriculture (to account for a decreasing production due to degradation, thereby creating a moving front). These model runs are necessarily done at the national level, as a demand in one country cannot be satisfied be a change in another. Final results have been assembled in a single map covering the study area.

For every land use the statistical "multi-scale" models determine the probability at every location
decision rules determine the conversions possible between land use types taking into account land use history at every location restrictions can be imposed to conversions in specified areas
land use type specific elasticities determine each use’s relative difficulty of conversion and spatial shift at each time step an iterative procedure allocates land use changes until obtaining the requested total land use changes		TPROPi,u= Pi,u + ELASu ITERu

For details read: Verburg, P. H., Soepboer, W., Limpiada, R., Espaldon, M. V. O., Sharifa, M., Veldkamp, A., 2002, Land use change modelling at the regional scale: the CLUE-S model. Environmental Management, 30, 391-405.