The CLUE modelling Framework

One particular modelling framework fulfilled the various requirements. The Conversion of Land Use and its Effects (CLUE) modelling framework, prepared by Veldkamp and Verburg at the Wageningen University , is an operational, physically existing and documented model, which’ sound scientific basis has been demonstrated by a series of publications. It respects the multi-scale and multi-disciplinary character of land use change and is adapted to our requirements of (1) being not extremely data demanding (no time series required), (2) being applicable to large areas (in contrast to agent-based models), (3) allowing and even requiring expert defined indicator input (using literature based knowledge), while (4) statistically solving the problem of the relative weight of the different indicators at different scales and locations, which we are not able to obtain in a deterministic way (as cellular automata approaches require). Finally, feedback is included allowing to define local allocation constraints.

The CLUE modelling framework is a methodology to model near future land use changes based upon actual land use conditions. Future land use change has to be given in quantitative terms as input to the model, that spatially allocates this "demand". A statistical analysis of the quantitative relationships between the actual land use distribution and (potential) driving forces or proxies of these forces underlies the allocation procedure. Based upon these derived multiple regression equations, areas with potential for increase or decrease in cover percentage of a certain land use type are identified. Actual allocation is modified by autonomous developments and competition between land use types. A multi-scale approach is followed to account for the scale dependencies of driving factors of land use change. This approach provides a balance between bottom-up effects as result of local conditions and top-down effects as result of changes at national and regional scales.

The model structure is based on systems theory to allow the integrated analysis of land-use change in relation to socio-economic and biophysical driving factors. The model explicitly addresses the hierarchical organization of land use systems, spatial connectivity between locations and stability. Stability is incorporated by a set of variables that define the relative elasticity of the actual land-use type to conversion.

CLUEs^* is the latest version of the model, designed for the use with spatially detailed (remotely sensed) data. The current study is the first application of this model at the continental scale

^* Verburg, P. H., Soepboer, W., Limpiada, R., Espaldon, M. V. O., Sharifa, M., Veldkamp, A., 2002, Land use change modelling at the regional scale: the CLUE-S model. Environmental Management, 30, 391-405.