Estimated changes in land use change "demand" at national (sub-national) level

Total changes in land use, at national scale are an input to the model. It is interesting to test different scenarios, but the study will focus on the most realistic changes, based on available country level statistics and expert knowledge. This near future demand was originally based on a linear extrapolation of recent past trends in deforestation and for cropland on linear interpolation of the 2015 arable land increase estimate of the recent FAO publication “World Agriculture: towards 2015/2030”.

The table below shows that these trends suggest that in South American tropical countries pasture expansion remains important. Although this does not inform on pasture directly replacing forest, it seems that the foreseen decrease in cattle stocks does not provide a sound basis for the change scenario definition of several Central American countries.

This first approximation was refined on the basis of (regional) experts knowledge.

Actual annual land cover change rate estimates, considered valid for the simulation period (2000 to 2010). Forest clearing and plantation are extrapolated from FRA2000 estimates. The total crop area results from linear interpolation of the 2015 arable land increase estimate of World Agriculture: towards 2015/2030. The remaining area to be allocated each year results from the difference between these estimates. For cattle livestock, population change over the same period is calculated. They have been cross-checked with FAO ESCB estimates where possible. Dividing this figure by the remaining area to be allocated gives theoretical densities that show whether it can be stated that this area is converted into (more or less intensively grazed) pasture.